In a role reversal befitting these topsy-turvy times, Wall Street has recently seen more turbulence than the top cryptocurrency
In a role swap that fits these wrong times, Wall Street has recently experienced more turbulence than the top cryptocurrency.
The 30-day volatility in daily returns on the S&P 500, or historical volatility, rose to 200 percent on Wednesday, almost ten times the average volatility of 27 percent observed in the previous 12 months, according to the Federal Reserve Bank from St. Louis.
Bitcoin's (BTC) volatility indicator was 138 percent on Wednesday, compared to the average volatility of 65 percent from March 2019 to February 2019 according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin price index .
The 30-day volatility of daily returns calculates the standard deviation of the daily gain or loss from each of the last 30 trading days and is usually expressed in annual numbers regardless of the period.
See also: Miners sell more Bitcoin than they mine
Simply put, it measures fluctuations from the mean, but does not measure direction. So, if we say that the 30-day volatility of Bitcoin's daily returns is lower than the volatility of the S&P 500, it means that the cryptocurrency has had fewer deviations from the average compared to the stock index over the past 30 days.
S&P 500 volatility began to increase in the first week of March, when the outbreak of the coronavirus accelerated outside of China and fueled fears of a global recession.
The situation worsened in the second and third weeks when the ongoing sell-off in stocks triggered margin calls and forced investors to treat traditional safe haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries as sources of liquidity.
This increased the uncertainty continued and increased price volatility - so much so that daily movements of the 4 to 5 percent become a new normal is .
In fact, volatility in the stock market has recently increased over the lifetime bitcoin average 30-day volatility, as pointed out by ARK Investment Management crypto-asset analyst Yassine Elmandjra. With this one measure , the reference stock index has become a relatively risky asset.
Of course, Bitcoin has also experienced a fair share of price volatility with institutions that are leaving the market, as global liquidity and price cuts are exaggerated due to forced long liquidations on the BitMEX derivatives exchange. In terms of volatility, however, the situation has been somewhat better lately than on Wall Street.
See also: Bitcoin Halving 2020, explained
The 30-day volatility of the cryptocurrency was below its 12-month average of 65 percent in the first 11 days of the month. However, on March 12, prices dropped a staggering 39 percent from $ 7,950 to $ 4,777 and hit lows below $ 4,000 the following day.
With the sudden drop in prices , Mach 12's 30-day volatility rose to 106 percent, and has continued to increase in the $ 6,500 to $ 7,000 range this week, despite the price recovery and relative stability observed this week.
Looking ahead, stock market volatility may subside as central banks and governments around the world have introduced monetary and fiscal lifelines to mitigate the economic impact of the virus outbreak.
The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to zero and announced an open-ended asset purchase program. Meanwhile, the US Senate approved a $ 2 trillion stimulus plan this week.
A possible decline in volatility in the equity markets could possibly also tame volatility in the Bitcoin market. The next halving of miners' rewards is scheduled for May. As a result, Bitcoin could revert to its traditional status as a riskier asset than stocks.
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